AAPB

GraniteShares 2x Long AAPL Daily ETF

NASDAQ · ETF

45.98

+0.25 (+0.54%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureHigher highs, higher lowsIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveDefensiveZigzag complete, next move down (Pattern Confidence 70); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 33.83–34.25 (4 relationships), −26.0% from the close.

MomentumPositive3 months +7.2% (ahead of SPY by 4.3 points); 6 months +50.7%.

RegimeUptrend+10.0% vs the 50-day average, +30.1% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 32% vs 50% over the year; 1-year drawdown −31.1%; beta 1.22.

AAPB setup historyNot replayed yet; the track record fills in most-traded securities first.

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

AAPB · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 47.63 on Jul 29, 2026. 228 labelings tested, 159 broke a hard rule, 12+ remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 159 labelings were eliminated

57Wave 2 always retraces less than 100% of wave 1
27Contracting triangle: C ends short of A's end, D short of B's end, and E short of C's end
18Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
13Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level
12Contracting diagonal: wave 3 is shorter than wave 1, wave 5 shorter than wave 3, and wave 4 shorter than wave 2
10Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 45.98

45.98close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

33.83 – 34.25−26.0% from the close

4 relationships · strength 4.4 · Intermediate, Minor degrees

34.25ProjectionWave C = 123.6% of wave A · Intermediate · EWF · secondary ratio
34.21ProjectionWave E = 78.6% of wave D · Minor · EWF · secondary ratio
34.04RetracementMove after the correction retraces 100% of A–C · Minor · Viridia · secondary ratio
33.83RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Intermediate · Viridia

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

Bearish setupActive now

Correction complete

A correction looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume.

Pattern Confidence 70 · High

Reference level0.0% from close

45.98

Latest close

Invalidation+3.6% from close

47.63

End of wave C: beyond it the correction is still extending

Structural target−28.4% from close

32.91

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Reward : risk

7.9 : 1

Invalidation 3.6% from the reference level · 1.0 ATR

Track record: this setup reached its target first in 18% of 2,015 past cases, averaging −0.29R. It lost money in both halves of the replay (−0.22R, then −0.34R), so treat it with caution. Method

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.BasisIntermediate degree, daily bars through Oct 16, 2026. Followed for up to 60 sessions in the track record.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: On demand, then updated nightly
Daily bars: 516 since Sep 26, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 35.7K
Dollar volume, 20 days: $1.2M
SEC CIK: Not matched
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: AAPB · massive: AAPB
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (47.63, Jul 29, 2026) price has moved −3.5%, the way the count expects.12 of 12 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: zigzag wave C ↑, opposite direction

Preferred count

Zigzag up · complete, next move down ↓

A three-wave zigzag correction up looks complete, so the larger trend would normally resume down.

A-B-C from 23.81, Sep 10, 2025

Pattern Confidence70High

5 of 6 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Reassess+3.6% from close

47.63

The pattern ended here. A move above it means its last wave is still going, so the pattern isn't complete.

Target, next move−28.4% from close

32.91

Move after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C

Nearest confluence zone−26.0% from close

33.83–34.25

4 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse up · complete, next move down ↓

A five-wave advance (impulse) looks complete, so a correction down would normally follow.

1-2-3-4-5 from 18.20, May 23, 2025

Pattern Confidence63Medium

8 of 12 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 5 met, 1 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
Wave C travels beyond the end of wave A (a failure is a truncation)
Wave C equals 61.8%, 100% or 123.6% of wave A
Alternate waves are related by a Fibonacci ratio within 5% (wave 5 to wave 1, C to A, or triangle legs at 61.8%), the more reliable kind of relationship

Not met

The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed