AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

NASDAQ · Common stock

75.57

−8.16 (−9.75%)

Close, Oct 16, 2026

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Structural summary

What is the structure, what changed, and what would invalidate it

Viridia Intelligence

Context across dimensions, not a rating

StructureContracting rangeIntermediate-degree swings on the daily chart.

WaveUnresolvedZigzag, wave C down (Pattern Confidence 71); the weekly count points the other way.

FibonacciZone belowNearest confluence 63.56–67.5 (3 relationships), −13.3% from the close.

MomentumWeak3 months −26.6% (behind SPY by 29.5 points); 6 months −52.6%.

RegimeDowntrend−31.9% vs the 50-day average, −32.7% vs the 200-day.

RiskNormal20-day volatility 103% vs 144% over the year; 1-year drawdown −66.1%; beta 4.25.

AAOI setup history0 resolved: 0 reached target first

Current structure

Price, swings and the preferred count on the chart

AAOI · 1DLoading bars…

SourceMassive, end of dayUpdated—MethodDaily bars, split-adjusted

Candidate interpretations

Every count shown passes every hard rule

Candidate interpretations

Ranked by Pattern Confidence

Counts ending at the latest intermediate swing high, 131.15 on Oct 6, 2026. 24 labelings tested, 16 broke a hard rule, 8 remain.

Hard-rule evidence: why 16 labelings were eliminated

12Wave 3 always travels beyond the end of wave 1
2Wave B retraces at least 90% of wave A
2Price after the last labeled point has not crossed a rule-based invalidation level

Method Every chain of 3–6 alternating pivots ending at the latest confirmed pivot is tested as each pattern; only counts with zero hard-rule failures are kept, then ranked by Pattern Confidence. Rules: rulebook.Engine pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1, bars to Oct 16, 2026

Fibonacci map

Confluence zones above and below the closeClose 75.57

75.57close

Bar length is the zone's strength (a weighted count of relationships, not a probability). Select a zone to see what forms it.

63.56 – 67.50−13.3% from the close

3 relationships · strength 6.8 · Primary, Intermediate degrees

67.50RetracementMove after the correction retraces 61.8% of A–C · Primary · Viridia
63.78ProjectionWave C = 100% of wave A · Intermediate · Essentials
63.56ProjectionWave C = 61.8% of wave A · Primary · Essentials · secondary ratio

Method Targets come from the Fibonacci relationships the sources describe for the wave in progress, Elliott trend channels, the prior fourth wave of lesser degree, and 38.2–78.6% retracements of the latest swing. A zone is where two or more independent relationships fall within max(¼ ATR, 0.4%) of each other; strength counts them, weighting primary ratios and higher degrees. It is not a probability.

Evidence

The setup the preferred count implies, and how that kind of setup has done

Setup

Intermediate degree · from the preferred count

No scenario at intermediate degree right now

The target is closer than the stop (reward:risk 0.14 : 1): most of the count's expected move has already happened, so it isn't a setup. Viridia shows nothing rather than a guess.

NoteResearch scenario generated from Viridia's structural model. Not a recommendation.MethodA setup restates the preferred count as a trade: the entry (the close, or the level where the correction in progress most often ends), the stop where the count is wrong (a rule level, or the end of a finished pattern), and the count's own Fibonacci target. Reward:risk is measured from the middle of the entry range. A setup needs reward:risk of at least 1 : 1. It is research output from the wave count, not a recommendation or a forecast.

Engine details

Analysis engine: pivots-1.0.0+rules-1.0.0+candidates-1.0.0+fib-1.0.1+rank-1.1.0+setup-1.0.1
Bars analysed to: Oct 16, 2026
Price history: Automatic, updated nightly
Daily bars: 514 since Sep 30, 2024
Avg volume, 50 days: 9.95M
Dollar volume, 20 days: $1.09B
SEC CIK: 0001158114
Provider symbols: nasdaqtrader: AAOI · massive: AAOI
Listing changes: None since Sep 24, 2026

SourcePrices: Massive (end of day, split-adjusted). Listings: Nasdaq Trader, SECUpdatedOct 19, 2026, 8:00 AM EDTMethodSecurity master, daily snapshot diff

Structure at a glance

Daily chart, as of Oct 16, 2026

Since the count's last pivot (131.15, Oct 6, 2026) price has moved −42.4%, the way the count expects.8 of 8 rule-valid counts expect the current move to be down.Weekly count: flat wave C ↑, opposite direction

Close call.The top two counts are within 4 points. Treat the structure as unresolved until one is invalidated.

Preferred count

Zigzag down · wave C ↓

Price is in wave C of a three-wave zigzag correction down.

A-B from 160.99, Aug 17, 2026

Pattern Confidence71High

3 of 3 checks met

Key levels, preferred count

Invalidation+113.0% from close

160.99

Price above this level breaks the count.

Target, wave C−15.6% from close

63.78

Wave C = 100% of wave A

Nearest confluence zone−13.3% from close

63.56–67.50

3 Fibonacci relationships meet here.

Alternate count

Impulse down · wave 3 ↓

Price is in wave 3 of a five-wave decline (impulse).

1-2 from 160.99, Aug 17, 2026

Pattern Confidence67Medium

2 of 2 checks met

Why this count is preferred · 3 met, 0 not met

Met

Wave B retraces 38.2% to 85.4% of wave A
Wave B retraces under 90% of wave A (deeper B waves fit a flat better)
The count starts at the price extreme of the prior swing (a new trend begins where the old one ended)

Not met

None.

MethodPattern Confidence = (guidelines met + 2) ÷ (guidelines measured + 4), from the rulebook's guidelines, Fibonacci tendencies and wave-personality checks (wave 3 speed and volume, wave 5 volume, alternation in time, a start at the prior extreme), alternate waves in Fibonacci ratio, and the rarity of running flats. The alternate is the best-ranked count that tells a different story. It ranks the rule-valid counts against each other; it is not a probability of any outcome.

Structural summary

Viridia Intelligence

Current structure

Candidate interpretations

Candidate interpretations

Fibonacci map

Fibonacci map

Evidence

Setup

Engine details

Structure at a glance

What changed